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已有 326 次阅读2011-8-31 13:39

The hottest new U.S. industry right now is cellular telephony -- phones in cars. In early July cellular telephone systems were operating in eight major U.S. metropolitan areas, including New York, Los Angeles, Washington-Baltimore, and Chicago, and they are being switched on at the rate of one a week in other cities. By 1990 the handful of subscribers chatting away today on the expressways in those eight cities will have grown to nearly a million -- even on the unlikely assumption that costs of subscribing will not have dropped from lofty introductory levels. But that scarcely measures the potential for a cellular explosion. Cellular telephones will be available in most of the top 30 metropolitan areas in the U.S. by the end of the year. Another 60 markets should be hooked up in the ensuing decade. Accordingbuy monitor for bmw e39 scope hd-2c t 191 serial kabel eken m008 World of Warcraft Cosplay g five mobile price in pakistan Special Car DVD/GPS Player for TOYOTA-RAV4 WG6(Wifi X6) Quad Band Dual Card With Wifi Analog TV Java Unlocked Cell Phone Epad2 9.7 inch Google Android 2.2 Resistive Screen Support Flash 10.1 Tablet PC i9+++ mobile phone 8gb tf memory card Adapter Rings everbuying ahappydeal spam everbuying scam ahappydeal ahappydeal scam C3+ Quad Band Tri Cards with Analog TV FM QWERTY Keyboard Cell Phone(White) V9 Quad Band Dual Cards Android 2.2 With Wifi Java Capacitive Touch Screen Smart Phone led faucet light temperature sensor Neon Genesis Evangelion eken m009s case upad zt180 android 2.2 9204 generous and fashion diesel time wrist watch (red) anime cosplay costumes E880 Quad Band Dual Cards with Analog TV Java Cell Phone china watch wholesale 3.5 inch ns android 2.2 2.0 inch K180 Analog TV FM Tri Cards QWERTY Keyboard Cell Phone(Red) h9700i quad band dual cards with wifi analog tv java leather cell phone(black) [cel2131] china wholesale free shipping to some estimates, cellular will be a $12-billion-a-year industry ten years from now-$4 billion in revenues from the calls that are made, $4 billion from sales of equipment to cellular telephone users, and $4 billion for antennas, computers, buildings, and other elements of the receiving and transmitting systems. Worldwide expansion of cellular telephone systems could increase the industry's girth manyfold. The Scandinavian countries and Japan have already hatched cellular systems, and their equipment manufacturers have leaped into the U.S. market. The investor eyeing this nascent industry is hardly confined to companies that seek to supply the service, which range from telephone company subsidiaries -- Nynex, Ameritech, and their kin -- to MCI, the Washington Post Co., and Western Union. Investors can also choose from an international menu of early starters among equipment suppliers. Oki Advanced Communications, the New Jersey based cellular subsidiary of Japan's big Oki Telecom Group, vies with Motorola for first place among makers of cellular equipment. Sweden's Ericsson recently scooped up a big contract for a Chicago system-an estimated $6 million. Other big players in the U.S. equipment market include AT&T, Tandy, and NEC. The stocks of some manufacturing companies involved in cellular "went berserk" two years ago says John S. Bain, telecommunications analyst with Lehman Brothers Kuhn Loeb. Communications Systems Inc. of Dallas, which makes cellular equipment, saw its stock go from $14 to $40 a share; the price is now riding along at about $20 a share. Right now, Bain says, cellular "is a generally depressed marker." The business takes huge investment and the payoff will take time. Lost of things could go wrong including threat that prices won't drop fast enough to make a phone in the car as irresistible as it sounds. Another grim possibility is that cellular might prove so popular that emerging systems would be temporarily swamped, driving potential users away. Right now only well-heeled, must-have-one individuals and those who can write it off can afford the hefty tab of cellular service. Equipment and installation cost about $2,500; that buys the handset in the car, plus the transmitter-receiver -- known as a transceiver -- and an antenna. Costs of the service vary from city to city. In Chicago, Ameritech Mobile Communications charges $22 per month as a basic fee for access to the system and 22 cents to 38 cents a minute, depending on the time of day. Long-distance tolls; of course, are extra. In Washington, Bell Atlantic Mobile Systems charges $25 a month plus 27 cents to 45 cents a minute. Pressure on mobile equipment manufacturers to cut prices will be extreme as the first rush of cost-be-damned buyers subsides. The pressure will increase this fall when Tandy Corp., an adroit mass marketer of home electronic equipment through its nationwide chain of Radio Shack stores, comes out with its first cellular phones. John V. Roach, Tandy's chairman and chief executive, believes that goods other than automobiles become mass-market items only when they cost under $1,000 each. Tandy's first cellular products will cast "a couple of thousand," Roach says. But he adds, "If what I think is going to happen in this market over the next 24 months does happen, half that price is possible." That would get equipment costs very close to his magic mass-market price. Roach goes on: "In the course of the next two years I'd hope to see monthly costs drop to $25 to $30." Such a decline should give demand a further healthy kick. Advances in both equipment and service might also hoist consumer sales. Truly portable phones-models that could be toted around in purse or pocket for use on the hoof – might make cellular a rival of today's wired telephone systems. The only walk around cellular phone now available, made by Motorola, costs more than $4,000. Its developer, Martin Cooper, head of Cellular Business Systems, a Chicago software company, believes portables will be available for as little as $1,000 within five years. Many experts predict a hefty demand for additional over-the-telephone services. Mobile phones will be able to link up with computers to receive information on stock movements, inventory availability, sales orders, and other data. These services could be provided as hard copy, using printers or facsimile machines similar to those already used in various law enforcement vehicles. Another possible cellular attraction: Oki is working on a burglar alarm that can be hooked up to a car phone. On parking a car, the driver records the location on tape and presets the number of the nearest precinct station. If somebody tries to break in, the car calls the cops. Oki expects to put the device on the market next year for about $500. Cellular phone service will become available first in the top 90 markets, which contain about 74 percent of the U.S. population, but cellular may ultimately reach the potential customers who live and work in lesser markets, such as Battle Creek, Michigan. One scheme for spreading service into lightly settled rural areas and small towns and cities would link the cellular system with a direct broadcast satellite system instead of telephone lines. In King of Prussia, Pennsylvania, Roy E. Anderson, vice president and co-founder of Mobile Satellite Corp., a private company, says his company's plan to link cellular by satellite will cost "a few hundred million." But he has lined up several big investors, including Associated Communications and General Electric. He hopes to have the system working in 1988.

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